The Grand Pissing Contest

[5min Read]

The Old foes threatened and counter-threatened to literally blow each other to smithereens.

It was probably the most nerve-wracking week in International politics and diplomacy in recent times. A week that humbled experts in the formless subject of diplomacy.

It’s a week with far-reaching effects. Consequences no one completely has full grasp of. The details are desperately difficult to cut into shape for an article.

President Donald J. Trump’s announcement after about a week of threats and counter-threats that it seemed, “Iran was standing down” was the first attempt at collective relief. This delicate impression of a ceasefire however began hemorrhaging once it became clear the Iranian military had in fact accidentally downed a Ukrainian passenger aircraft killing all 176 souls on board. The death of all 176 was a disaster of some historical proportions. A tragic and colossal mess. It has since become the parturient for the very loud and intense protests in the powerful Middle Eastern nation.

For a country that has fancied itself the political Czar of the Middle East the sequence of events certainly has embarrassed her royally. On the other hand however, Washington will be pleased at how things have played out.

Well, except the death of the innocent travelers.

It is unfortunately a conflict of so many angles and so many players and potential players, like the cold war.

IRAN’s LOSSES

The Islamic Republic of Iran suffered by far the most devastating blows in the barely one-week long stand-off. The death of the Don of Covert operations, Qasim Soleimani triggered all other events. The US-ordered assassination was followed by the largely senseless deaths of some 30+ citizens as a result of the stampede during Soleimani’s funeral procession.

Qasim Soleimani's death exacerbated the longtime feud. This photo shows a public display of the famed friendship between the late Major General and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini 

As if those weren’t embarrassing enough, the nation soon found itself admitting to the world that its military had fired accidentally at a passenger aircraft with some 82 Iranians and 63 Canadians amongst others on board.

For a nation desperate to spread its influence and stamp its authority on the politics of the notoriously unstable Middle Eastern region, this was one nightmare they never saw coming and were ill-equipped to mitigate. The major action point of their campaign for the throne of the Middle East has always been to drive the Americans out of the region.

The Americans have approximately 5,500 US Special forces who have made Iran’s next door neighbour, Iraq, their home, spreading across 7 military bases. The US military footprint in the Middle East also includes troops in Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Afghanistan. This is an almost perfect encirclement of Iran. A situation that makes the Shia Islam-ruled nation deeply uncomfortable. An overthrow of the US presence in the region remains high on Iran’s National project, political menu and its leaders’ obsessions.

They are wary of the Americans and only got slightly comfortable when the Obama administration managed to secure a deal to discourage Iran from building a Nuclear Weapons’ program in exchange for numerous incentives. President Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018 therefore setting the stage for what was going to be a frightening standoff.

For now, though, it appears the Iranian government would put the military option against the US on the backburner and continue its decades-long posturing and recitation of “Marg bar Amrika” which is farsi for “Death to America” in the Mosques, streets and government buildings.

Tehran will then, knowing its old foe’s tricky covert methods, keep an eye on the anti-government protests that have ravaged the nation since the passenger plane went down. It is expected that government officials will hightail to domestic matters and ensure the protests are not a product of The Great Satan’s (What the Iranians called the US) wish for a regime change in Iran 

This is a theoretical conspiracy with very rich precedence. The Iranians will not be amnesic about the American-sponsored and CIA executed events that led to the overthrow of their popular and democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. 

President Rouhani's government, already embarrassed on the international scene, will now double down and make sure its citizens are not used to bring the entire structure down like a pack of cards.

All these, while the government tries to regain the trust of its citizens after the unfortunate air disaster and spectacular failure in its quest to stand up to the “Imperialists”. 



                                                         AMERICA’s GAMBLE

Thousands of miles away, President Donald Trump’s interpretation of events is abundantly clear. “AMERICA WON, IRAN BACKED OUT, NO ONE TESTS US”. 

His version of events confirms at least to him, that the full strength of his country’s military is a nemesis to anyone and for a man with an incredible narcissistic view of life, HE DID IT. He was the guy who put the stubborn Iran in a naughty corner. 

Oh, and he didn't have to bribe them like Obama did. 

America remains the most powerful non-middle Eastern Economic (namely Oil) and Military influence in the middle east. That's his new album.

His 8^th of January speech may not have been a victory lap but it wasn’t very far from that. It is worthy to note that he is in fact not against a deal with Iran, the condition is that it has to be on America’s terms, his own terms.

Trump, flanked by his VP and Defense Secretary announces that no American lives were lost in Iran's reprisal attacks and that Iran was standing down while also offering a chance for a deal. 

An olive branch the Iranians have so far flatly rejected. Interestingly, the President’s sentiments are not shared by all. Not the least, his opponents the democrats.

The recent events have placed very smoothly, most of the Democratic Presidential candidates between a rock and hard place. Between having to call out the President on his seemingly impulsive actions and the fact that Soleimani’s death may in fact not have been the worst event in the world from the American point of view.

The House of Representatives, Democrat-controlled and a recurrent thorn in the President’s flesh, impeached him before the turn of the new year and reacted to the events by passing a resolution to curb his war powers. A resolution which in practical terms has the stamina and spine of a premature baby jellyfish.

It’s election year and articles of impeachment have been sent to the Senate and trial has begun. There is a commonsensical conclusion that the President dived headfirst into pissing Iran off to score some expensive popularity ahead of the election while simultaneously diverting attention from the impeachment that still hangs over his head.

The Democratic Managers of the case for the Impeachment of the President made a dramatic foot trip to the Senate hall to deliver the articles of impeachment.  

Asides the 11 service members in Iraq treated for “minor injuries” as a result of Iran’s strike against US bases, the leader of the free world may have in fact brought his nation out of the Coliseum arena relatively unscathed. Opinion is sharply divided (among party lines) about the necessity of Soleimani’s execution and whether or not the far-reaching effects will be worth it.

For his core base and supporters however, they have just been offered a front-row seat to watch the Commander-In-Chief they voted “talk tough and walk tough”. That will excite them.

For his core base and supporters however, they have just been offered a front-row seat to watch the Commander-In-Chief they voted “talk tough and walk tough”. That will excite them.

                                                              

THE FUTURE

The pattern, sequence and eventual outcome of these events have made one revelation available to commentators and observers, no one can predict accurately how things will play out with these nations. We can at best, live in the present. The present being, the world is not at war for the third time.

The world of diplomacy and international politics has earned itself on one hand, a brief relief but on the other, chronic insomnia from keeping an eye on these two who would never be friends.

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