The Presidency's Saraki Problem

[A 5 min read]

Disclaimer I’m absolutely not a fanboy of the subject of this article. Resist any temptation to get it twisted.

Pay attention.

I don’t envy the President and the Presidency. They’ve got a problem. A monstrous one. A problem the size of frilled shark.

Dr Bukola Saraki. The most malignant cause of headache for the Presidency in flesh

That monster shark is in form of a man who once took the Hippocratic Oath far away in London but has since made the deadly Nigerian political minefield his own relaxation spot.

The making of this particular monster has the fingerprints of the presidency all over it.

You see friends, when a man gets himself to the 3^rd most powerful office in the land against the wishes of the strong forces of his own party and then goes ahead to have an opposition member as a second in command, it’s probably a smart idea to best believe he’s not the typical enemy.

It’s probably wisdom to believe he has plans to stay in power for long. An enemy like that is one you’d rather have on your side and not against.

At this point, let me introduce Dr Bukola Saraki- a well-formed product of the powerful Saraki Dynasty of Kwara State (Like the American Kennedys or Bushs) known for his genius, sleek and near flawless political moves- the monstrous problem the Presidency has on her hands.

The Kennedys. One of the biggest political dynasties in the US. The Sarakis are quite similar albeit disjointed.

How do you deal with this guy?

How do you deal with such a guy...?

The Nigerian presidency has have been her tradition for the past 3 years went into this crucial duel with Dr Saraki with evidently no political finesse whatsoever. Rash and brash. Not very long after his election as Senate President, the code of conduct tribunal came chasing. A move you didn’t need an IQ of 140 to figure out Aso Villa had a hand in.

Looking back at how things turned out, using the Code of Conduct tribunal to clip his wings was a spectacular miscalculation

Their thought pattern was hypothetically along these lines; The Courts come down so hard on him (Dr Saraki) and he runs to Aso Villa to surrender in exchange for their anointed guy taking the Senate Presidency or the courts finish him off so he’s toast permanently. Whichever scenario I assumed would have had the presidency raising their glasses in toast.

Here’s what they didn’t see coming.

The trial fetched him tremendous support from his peers in the National assembly and wait for it… defended by team of 79-lawyer legal led by an ex-attorney General, he won at the Supreme Court. Mission unintentionally accomplished. Monster created.

Now he had their time. He was off the hook. Now like any self-respecting politician, he went into action. Basically supervised the defection of a good number of lawmakers loyal to him to the opposition party then like a leaf out of conspiracy theory textbook, he sent the National assembly on a lengthy recess. The avalanche had been set into motion.

From his seat of power, the Medical Doctor supervised (maybe even masterminded) a bolus dose of defections from the ruling party. Like a vicious Joe Frazier left hook, it caught the APC unawares

His own political party swap would come later. Back home to the PDP. 

Did the presidency learn? Oh you bet they didn’t. As usual, their solution was brute force so yes, they sent the nation’s elite DSS operatives to take over the National Assembly complex (that was after they had laid siege on the homes of the principal officers of the parliament).

If you're ever going to kill a spitting Cobra, go subtly and do not miss at first attempt. Both principles violated as the DSS laid siege on the National Assembly publicly. An unmitigated disaster neatly wrapped in a colossal failure.

Result? Unmitigated disaster. First, none one of the leaders of the law-making body could be arrested and mission to take over the parliament building was utter shambles. Worse still, the coverage was public and undeniable.

This time, the faecolith was obvious on the apparel of the highest governing body in the country.

Like any great political story, someone would have to pay for the sins. A head had to be served on the plate for the public so the DSS Czar was selected and led as a lamb (although not as innocent and tender) to the slaughter. He was fired.

Lawal Daura: Former Emperor of the DSS Secret empire but most recently sacrificial lamb on behalf of the iniquities of the actual Mufasas. Good riddance actually

At this point, I cannot help but wonder if no one in the entire body called the presidency ever read the political bible- Niccolo Machiavelli’s The Prince. If anyone ever thought things were better done subtly, quietly and smoothly.

Let me reiterate that I don’t have half a microlitre of compassion for what the Senate President went through. It’s politics. It's especially the type he’s well versed in. The man governed Kwara State for some 8 years and basically handpicked his successor (who himself is only a year shy of governing for 8 years) to the office while he joined the former governors’ nursing home called the Senate house.

So for all intent and purposes, this man both governed the state directly or by proxy for the past 15+ years. No way he did that by playing nice or following peace with all men. The government house during his time was definitely not a monastery. 

Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed- Current representative of Dr Saraki in Kwara state. Oh, he defected to the PDP like "Daddy" did too 

Now to the huge one. He’s running for President (Hands up if you’re surprised). His original goal. Ever seen House of Cards? Frank Underwood in that series had always wanted to be President but his ambition gained speed and lethality when he was refused the job of Secretary of State.

President Francis J. Underwood: His inner monster was unveiled because the Presidency pissed him off. 

In a crowded PDP Presidential field, I see little match for this man really. He’s come too far. Has all it takes to beat them all including the aging Former  Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

So ladies and Gentlemen, a straight two-horse battle between the President and the Senate President for what is left of the soul of the highest office in the land is the most likely eventuality. None particularly palatable in the grand scheme of things. I bet the President’s men would have preferred Atiku as the most obvious opponent against their principal.

Here readers, get your pencils, sharpen them and draw your conclusions. Mine is I don't think I've ever seen two people more in love...or not

The columnist can't predict the results but this much I can speculate: come 2019, President Buhari (already spectacularly unpopular) won’t be having a clean sweep of votes (not even if his party logo is a broom) if or when he comes up against Dr Saraki.

The monster The President and his men have created is like a cat with 9 lives, he’s not going to be easy put down.

There won't be a clean sweep for the president in 2019 even if the logo of the APC is a broom.

 Boy we’re going to have a weird election year. 

Fela Durotoye, Donald Duke, Kingsley Moghalu et al you say? All good guys but I’d leave you with these words of immortal wisdom;

"Oh give me a break"

Pay attention to the weird stuff going on in Osun State and don't bother trying to understand. It's Nigerian politics and it has a "not to be understood" label on it. Just admire its sheer foolishness from a distance with a bowl of popcorn and a chilled drink of your choosing.

May the force be with you.

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