THE JUNE 12 THING

[ 3 min read ]

“I tender the nation’s apology to the family of MKO Abiola, Also to those who struggle and stood for June 12.” - President Muhammadu Buhari at the June 12 Investiture of National Honours

One hand up if you believe the Nigerian Presidency deployed the apology for the June 12, 1993 election result annulment as a tourniquet to a haemorrhaging South-West Nigeria support?

Raise a second hand if you’re upset at this seemingly cynical move.

If you have both hands up, take a seat. Like Ygritte announced to Jon Snow on that faithful day, “You know nothing”

Golden rule for a very healthy living, Politicians don’t naturally do the Saint Theresa of Calcutta thing. They are not saints. Their elections are not heralded by white smoke up the chimney. Altruism and being a politician are poles apart.

Politicians, not Saints

There’s a book titled “The Prince”, authored by the legendary 16^th Century Italian diplomat, Niccolo Machiavelli. It’s the holy grail of political moves. The fountain of political manoeuvres. Interestingly, there are “99” pro level political chess movies taught by Machiavelli but what the Buhari Presidency pulled was one “One”.

The Prince: The Holy Book of Politicians. The domicile of political manoeuvres 

The basis of Machiavelli’s brilliant findings is predicated on the theory that the populace are in fact to be manipulated at every point in time. It explains exactly what politics is all about. In the Nigerian setting for instance, it starts with politicians attending Church services, stopping by the roadside to buy roasted corn and all sorts while reserving the brutal manoeuvres like completely annulling an election or outright rigging it for when niceties fail.

President Buhari’s move to suddenly honor MKO Abiola and apologize falls in the category of the nice manipulation options. His predecessor made a similar attempt for similar reasons by trying to name the University of Lagos after MKO Abiola. That ended not very nicely.

Played a similar card but with UNILAG as the chess piece. Boomeranged spectacularly 

So why MKO Abiola? What exactly is the significance of trying to secure haemostasis in a bleeding Yoruba support? What’s so important about the region? Let’s dissect this a little further.

The Country is divided into 6 geopolitical zones (North-West, North-East, North-Central, South-West, South-South and South-East). Previous elections conducted have shown that Nigerians vote along tribal lines and so more often than not, the Western and Eastern part of the Northern region will not vote the same candidate as the South-East and South-South. The North-central will most likely gravitate towards the core North’s choice.

That leaves the trickiest of regions, the South-West. The region has voted the winning presidential ticket since 1999. They are the Nigerian “swing region”. They vote for you and the presidency becomes your inheritance. Sometimes, they can do that for you the first time and turn their backs on you on the second time of asking, Dr Goodluck Jonathan learnt that the hard way.

The President’s advisers finally got something right. Election is less than a year away. The South-Westerners have moved from being hopeful in this presidency, to being disillusioned and finally, being straight up horrified by how worse it can get.

Question is, how well can this gesture control the torrential bleed that is the swing region’s support? The desperation of the presidency is palpable. Having one of their “Sons” as Vice President does not cut it anymore. The late activist from the same region, Gani Fawehimi was added into the honors’ roster to appeal to the sentiments of that region.

The Late Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola;  In 1993, Presumed winner of the Presidential election. In 2018, tool in the hands of a desperate President 

Truth is, with a number of months to go, the presidency will get more desperate. In situations like this, incumbency is an advantage. A famous maxim is, “A President giveth and a President taketh away”. There are perks of being the landlord of Aso Villa. There are things you can give (in this case honors) and things you can take, case in point, Dr Goodluck Jonathan at the extreme of manipulative moves decided to shift the 2015 elections by 6 weeks due to “insecurity”.

None of these things can be provided by any of the other candidates for the Presidency.

Summary? This won’t be the last of gestures towards the region and we get closer to the finish line, gestures become more desperate, more radical and more of “taking” than “giving”.

DID YOU MISS THIS? The day of showmanship was complete when the President helped Mrs Ganiat Fawehimi (Widow of Gani Fawehimi) with a fallen item. 

It’s just politics. It's showmanship. It's a game too and you're part of it like it or not. You're either doing the playing or well, I hate to break what the other part is to you...

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